2
Preshow Hype
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 2/7 | 99% | 43% | -0.56 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 57% | -0.39 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 18/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |