1
Shessweetlikecandy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 52
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength67%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 11/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 27/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |