2
Havana Flash
2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 76
Chester · Vault Money EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 17y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength73%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-27 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 6-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -28.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 42% | +0.15 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |