5
Novah
2yo Filly · 9-2
Chester · Vault Money EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 17y
#5
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength22%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 2 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -30.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |