Trust In Far

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 38

Chester · Vault Money EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 17y

Rank

Odds

200/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class: 2

Recent avg: C3.7

Today: 4

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-17	Windsor	4	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-07-30	Wolverhampton	5	10th	11th	−1	1.0
2026-07-24	Thirsk	4	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-12	Chester	2	7th	5th	+2	5.4
2026-05-30	Chester	4	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-05-22	Haydock	3	9th	8th	+1	2.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength25%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/05/2026	9th	80/1	0%	0%	0.00
30/05/2026	11th	250/1	0%	9%	+0.09
12/06/2026	7th	400/1	0%	25%	+0.25
24/07/2026	6th	200/1	0%	17%	+0.17
30/07/2026	10th	300/1	0%	0%	0.00
17/08/2026	8th	300/1	0%	30%	+0.30