IvyArcIvyArc
8

Gerry's Darling

2yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 68

Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y

#7

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in a maiden at Musselburgh in July and has twice been third in nurseries since, latterly of 10 at Haydock 16 days ago when beaten by a pair that could be some way ahead of their marks. Well drawn and should take a hand.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 7f6y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS20/0622 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f6y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0724 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0744 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 65 · 7f15y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 65 par31/074OR 655 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 65 · 7f Goo 134 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 65 par7/085OR 655 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 6f212y Sft 130 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 69 par3/095OR 69projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock53rd3rd0
2026-08-07Thirsk53rd3rd0
2026-07-31Musselburgh41st0th+1
2026-07-19Redcar42nd1st+1
2026-07-09Doncaster27th3rd+3
2026-06-20Doncaster28th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/069/0719/0731/077/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -7.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/06/20268th28/10%42%+0.42
09/07/20267th80/10%0%0.00
19/07/20262nd18/15%92%+0.86
31/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
07/08/20263rd11/486%60%-0.26
03/09/20263rd8/158%78%+0.20