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7

High Hazard

2yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 69

Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Saw his race out well when fifth at Haydock last time but is still a maiden after 6 starts and lacks scope so he's got plenty on from the worst of the draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS31/0533 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0633 @ Beverley 04/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS4/0732 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 74 · 7f Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 74 par30/072OR 742 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 73 · 7f GS 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 73 par20/082OR 735 @ Haydock 03/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 71 · 6f212y Sft 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 71 par3/095OR 71projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Haydock55th5th0
2026-08-20York213th9th+3
2026-07-30Goodwood216th12th+3
2026-07-04Beverley33rd1st+2
2026-06-16Beverley32nd0th+2
2026-05-31Thirsk39th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0516/064/0730/0720/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength49%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
16/06/20262nd22/10%83%+0.83
04/07/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
30/07/202616th40/10%12%+0.12
20/08/202613th100/10%29%+0.29
03/09/20265th9/276%56%-0.21