10
Nascent Star
2yo Colt · 9-0 · OR 66
Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.6
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newbury | 2 | 16th | 12th | +3 |
| 2026-06-27 | Windsor | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 3-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 18/07/2026 | 16th | 100/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 89% | +0.07 |
| 17/08/2026 | 9th | 4/1 | 79% | 11% | -0.68 |