9
Navy Light
2yo Colt · 9-1 · OR 67
Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Beverley | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ripon | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +16.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |