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5

Red Tail

2yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 70

Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second on debut at Brighton but then came last of 13 at Newbury in August, proving virtually unrideable after hanging badly. Bit better when fifth of 8 in a maiden at Epsom 19 days ago though still didn't keep straight under pressure and he needs progress on nursery debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Brighton 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 5f215y Goo 1337/0852 @ Newbury 15/08/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS15/0823 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 7f3y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS31/083projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Epsom Downs35th3rd+2
2026-08-15Newbury213th9th+3
2026-08-07Brighton52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0815/0831/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +26.0% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/08/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
15/08/202613th16/116%0%-0.16
31/08/20265th22/10%43%+0.43