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Somers Isles

2yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 75

Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Similar form when placed both starts, finishing third of 10 at Newbury (second won since) over 6f last month. Now steps back up to 7f with the aid of a good draw so is one to take seriously making nursery debut on just third outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Newmarket 17/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0734 @ Newbury 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/084projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Newbury43rd2nd+1
2026-07-17Newmarket32nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 6-6 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength51%

Delivery trend -21.3% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/20262nd5/174%83%+0.10
26/08/20263rd2/189%78%-0.12