Sovereigns High

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 71

Chester · John Smith's Nursery · 7f 1y

#10

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark

Move▼1

Strength53%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-26	Newbury	5	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-08-02	Chester	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-07-13	Windsor	4	8th	7th	+1	3.2
2026-06-29	Kempton	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength45%

Delivery trend -5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
29/06/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	78%	+0.41
13/07/2026	8th	5/1	74%	36%	-0.37
02/08/2026	3rd	28/1	0%	50%	+0.50
26/08/2026	8th	9/1	53%	46%	-0.06