7
Hamadhan
4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73
Chester · Destination2 Selling Stakes · 1m 2f 70y
#11
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Beverley | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Leicester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Chester | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-09-19 | Dundalk | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Curragh | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 9-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2024 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 69% | +0.53 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 58% | -0.13 |
| 23/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 19/09/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 85% | +0.11 |
| 07/05/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |