8
Ohara
3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 75
Chester · Destination2 Selling Stakes · 1m 2f 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength48%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Goodwood | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ascot | 3 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ascot | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Sandown | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Windsor | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 09/10/2025 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 20/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 11/05/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 12/06/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 25/07/2026 | 15th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 08/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |