4
Oman
8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 68
Chester · Destination2 Selling Stakes · 1m 2f 70y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Goodwood | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 14% | -0.41 |
| 08/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 18/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 70% | -0.17 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 11% | -0.63 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 11/09/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |