Patagonia Girl
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 80
Chester · Destination2 Selling Stakes · 1m 2f 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
87%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | York | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-02 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 30/07/2025 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 30/05/2026 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |