5
Reds And Wolves
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 76
Chester · Destination2 Selling Stakes · 1m 2f 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-05-30 | Chepstow | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -6.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 60% | +0.18 |
| 19/04/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 30/05/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 63% | +0.36 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |