Golden Brown
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 80
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Ascot | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Salisbury | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | York | 2 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-05-23 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lingfield | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Redcar | 1 | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 11/09/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 93% | +0.38 |
| 20/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 12/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |