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12

Havana Rum

6yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 74

Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y

#5

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Looked well treated when second at Pontefract (6f) in August and was by no means disgraced when 8th of 21 over 5.5f at York 13 days ago, finding the sharper test beyond him. Well drawn if able to start a bit sharper than can sometimes be the case and the return to a full 6f can see him go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 80 · 5f3y GS 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 80 par7/042OR 804 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 83 · 6f2y GS 133 · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 83 par3 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 82 · 5f182y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 82 par30/053OR 823 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 80 · 6f17y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 79 · 6f3y Goo 136 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 79 par1/074OR 794 @ York 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 19 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par25/072OR 773 @ Pontefract 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/08/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 76 · 5f89y GS 134 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 76 par6/094OR 76projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York48th8th0
2026-08-16Pontefract32nd1st+1
2026-07-25York28th6th+2
2026-07-11York43rd3rd0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs43rd3rd0
2026-06-13Chester35th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0413/0625/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -4.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/04/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
16/05/20266th13/266%55%-0.11
30/05/20269th18/15%38%+0.33
13/06/20265th11/142%56%+0.13
01/07/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
11/07/20263rd12/137%89%+0.52
25/07/20268th33/10%65%+0.65
16/08/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
06/09/20268th4/179%65%-0.14