3
Kirkdale
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 81
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
26%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-16 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-02 | Newcastle | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Newcastle | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength85%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 28/10/2025 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 01/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 02/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 70% | -0.04 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |