13
Mission Command
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#10
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Epsom Downs | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 29/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 16/05/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 18% | -0.42 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 01/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |