14
Moonstone Boy
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 71
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Thirsk | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-02-16 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-10 | York | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 19/09/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 29/09/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 10/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 16/02/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 05/03/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 45% | -0.20 |
| 10/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 70% | +0.23 |