Proof
3yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 77
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#8
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Ffos Las | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Epsom Downs | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hamilton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Southwell | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 27% | -0.28 |
| 17/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 05/06/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |