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4

Supreme King

6yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 81

Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y

#4

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Salisbury in August and ran well returned to that track when third 8 days ago. Went close here earlier in the year and could take a hand.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 75 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 75 par9/065OR 754 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 77 · 6f12y GF 133 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Chepstow 03/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 7f16y Goo 130 · beat its mark03/07/2026 · OR 77 par3/074OR 774 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y Goo 128 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 26 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 136 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 78 par29/074OR 783 @ Salisbury 12/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ Chester 22/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 82 · 6f17y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 82 par22/083OR 824 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 82 · 6f12y Sft 140 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Salisbury 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 81 · 6f Sft 135 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 81 par11/094OR 81projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Salisbury43rd3rd0
2026-08-29Windsor46th6th0
2026-08-22Chester35th4th+1
2026-08-12Salisbury31st0th+1
2026-07-29Goodwood47th7th0
2026-07-10Chester42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0610/0722/0811/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -3.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
27/06/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
03/07/20262nd6/492%80%-0.12
10/07/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
29/07/20267th11/271%76%+0.05
12/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
22/08/20265th14/126%60%+0.34
29/08/20266th11/486%38%-0.48
11/09/20263rd5/174%71%-0.02