6

Top Juggler

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 79

Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

26%

Place Prob

19%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over 5.5f here in July but often races freely and produced just a respectable third of 10 at Ripon on latest start. Capable if settling better but stall 10 unlikely to help.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength40%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 75 · 5f182y Gd 125 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 75 par1/094OR 752 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 22nd of 25 · OR 75 · 6f Sft 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Southwell 23/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 78 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark23/10/2025 · OR 78 par23/104OR 784 @ Wolverhampton 03/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 78 · 6f20y Std 128 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 77 · 6f6y Gd 132 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 77 par17/054OR 774 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 78 · 5f7y Goo 135 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 78 · 5f110y Goo 128 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/074OR 784 @ Hamilton 11/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 79 · 6f6y Goo 129 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Ripon 01/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Sft 139 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 79 par1/094OR 79projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Ripon43rd3rd0
2026-08-11Hamilton47th7th0
2026-07-10Chester41st1st0
2026-06-17Hamilton42nd2nd0
2026-05-17Hamilton43rd3rd0
2025-11-03Wolverhampton45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/093/1110/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength69%

Delivery trend -5.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
19/09/202522nd40/10%13%+0.13
23/10/20253rd12/137%82%+0.45
03/11/20255th13/266%64%-0.02
17/05/20263rd16/116%83%+0.68
17/06/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07
10/07/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
11/08/20267th10/382%45%-0.37
01/09/20263rd9/153%78%+0.25