10
Watchdog
3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 76
Chester · Kidsbank Chester Handicap · 6f 17y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Doncaster | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-20 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-28 | Southwell | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-26 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength97%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 38% | -0.23 |
| 12/12/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 88% | +0.03 |
| 19/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/01/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 63% | -0.24 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 13% | +0.07 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 27/05/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 22/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |