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3

Betsen

5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 84

Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest win at Chepstow in May. Creditable third of 10 over C&D (soft) 8 days ago. 1 lb lower today so ought to be competitive again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 85 · 6f16y Std 134 · beat its mark20/02/2026 · OR 85 par20/024OR 854 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 86 · 6f20y Std 136 · below its mark23/03/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 86 · 6f1y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 86 par3/043OR 862 @ Leicester 25/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Ascot 08/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 84 par8/053OR 844 @ Chepstow 21/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 82 · 5f16y GS 137 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 20 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 86 par6/062OR 864 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 86 · 5f10y GS 139 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 85 · 5f15y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 85 par11/093OR 85projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester33rd2nd+1
2026-08-29Sandown45th5th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs28th6th+2
2026-05-21Chepstow41st1st0
2026-05-08Ascot39th8th+1
2026-04-25Leicester213th11th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0225/046/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%

Delivery trend +7.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/20263rd13/266%82%+0.16
23/03/20264th15/890%40%-0.50
03/04/20267th18/15%45%+0.40
25/04/202613th16/116%0%-0.16
08/05/20269th16/116%11%-0.05
21/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
06/06/20268th28/10%63%+0.63
29/08/20265th17/255%43%-0.12
11/09/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78