Elegant Erin
9yo Mare · 9-12 · OR 85
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Beverley | 1 | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Beverley | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Doncaster | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 2 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Pontefract | 2 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 06/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 07/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/05/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |