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7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 70
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#5
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Chepstow | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Chepstow | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-20 | Beverley | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 15/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 24/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 06/08/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |