9
Maharajas Express
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 71
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
91%
Place Prob
62%
Rank
#1
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Sandown | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-17 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +10.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 18/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 17/2 | 55% | 20% | -0.35 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 17/08/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 95% | +0.95 |
| 13/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |