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6

Noble Vow

3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 80

Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y

#11

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form when winning a Bath maiden (5.7f) in May and followed up in handicap at Haydock later that month. Saddle slipped next time and looked rusty after 2 months off (had been gelded) when always behind at Glorious Goodwood. Better expected now back down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ripon 26/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 5f Goo 13326/0844 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f Goo 1335 @ Wolverhampton 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 76 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 76 par20/105OR 764 @ Bath 17/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 76 · 5f160y Gd 131 · beat its mark17/04/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 75 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 75 par4/054OR 754 @ Bath 12/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 75 · 5f160y Fm 132 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 75 · 5f Goo 130 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 75 par23/054OR 754 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 132 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ Goodwood 30/07/2026 · Pos 17th of 18 · OR 82 · 5f Goo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 82 par30/073OR 82projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Goodwood317th16th+1
2026-05-31Thirsk412th12th0
2026-05-23Haydock41st1st0
2026-05-12Bath41st1st0
2026-05-04Kempton43rd3rd0
2026-04-17Bath45th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0817/0423/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/08/20254th15/890%57%-0.33
19/09/20253rd6/168%82%+0.13
20/10/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
17/04/20265th11/142%67%+0.25
04/05/20263rd9/488%80%-0.08
12/05/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
23/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
31/05/202612th7/282%0%-0.82
30/07/202617th25/10%6%+0.06