13
Over Spiced
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 69
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Goodwood | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Chepstow | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Newbury | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |