7
Secret Mistral
6yo Mare · 9-6 · OR 79
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Catterick | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 88% | +0.27 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 89% | +0.13 |
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 67% | +0.25 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 30% | -0.12 |