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Sudden Flight

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 86

Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y

#6

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice (5f/6f) on all-weather in 2025. Runner-up 3 times over 6f on turf this year and another creditable effort when fifth of 10 at Goodwood (6f again) last time. Speedy enough to cope with the return to 5f and he's well drawn.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength86%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 87 · 6f20y Std 140 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 87 par31/074OR 872 @ Ayr 20/09/2025 · Pos 14th of 25 · OR 94 · 6f Sft 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 94 par3 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 89 · 6f Sft 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/10/2025 · OR 89 par24/103OR 892 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 6f12y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Goodwood 07/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 85 par7/063OR 853 @ Salisbury 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 86 par3 @ Windsor 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 87 · 6f12y GF 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 87 par27/073OR 872 @ Windsor 10/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 88 · 6f12y GF 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 88 par2 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 87 · 6f Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 87 par30/082OR 87projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood25th3rd+2
2026-08-10Windsor212th10th+2
2026-07-27Windsor32nd1st+1
2026-06-30Salisbury32nd1st+1
2026-06-07Goodwood32nd1st+1
2026-05-25Windsor23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0725/0527/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20251st85/4089%100%+0.11
20/09/202514th22/10%46%+0.46
24/10/202514th12/137%24%-0.13
25/05/20263rd7/282%67%-0.15
07/06/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15
30/06/20262nd17/255%83%+0.28
27/07/20262nd4/179%92%+0.13
10/08/202612th17/255%27%-0.29
30/08/20265th11/142%56%+0.13