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10

Vingegaard

4yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 74

Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Bounced back to form under more positive tactics with success in 11-runner handicap at Thirsk (6f) in June. Left Julie Camacho after a poor run at Glorious Goodwood but quickly back on form for new yard when sixth of 21 at York (5.4f) 13 days ago. Heavy-ground winner as a juvenile. Respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Fairyhouse 23/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 93 · 6f Gd 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/09/2024 · OR 93 par23/091OR 933 @ Newcastle 06/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 90 · 5f Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/02/2026 · OR 90 par3 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 87 · 6f20y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 87 par7/033OR 874 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 84 · 5f Std 134 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Catterick 22/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 79 · 5f212y Goo 134 · beat its mark22/04/2026 · OR 79 par22/044OR 794 @ Hamilton 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f7y Goo 132 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 77 par5 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 6f Goo 141 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 74 par16/065OR 744 @ Goodwood 29/07/2026 · Pos 14th of 26 · OR 76 · 6f Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 76 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 21 · OR 75 · 5f89y GS 133 · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 75 par6/094OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York46th6th0
2026-07-29Goodwood414th14th0
2026-06-16Thirsk51st2nd−1
2026-05-27Hamilton46th6th0
2026-04-22Catterick43rd3rd0
2026-03-27Newcastle412th12th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0927/0316/066/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/09/20245th10/382%33%-0.49
06/02/202610th40/10%31%+0.31
07/03/20269th33/10%0%0.00
27/03/202612th40/10%0%0.00
22/04/20263rd18/15%50%+0.45
27/05/20266th8/158%0%-0.58
16/06/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
29/07/202614th50/10%48%+0.48
06/09/20266th40/10%75%+0.75