8
Winchurch
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 76
Chester · Halliwell Jones Handicap · 5f 15y
#13
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Thirsk | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Goodwood | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Nottingham | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength18%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 18/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 02/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/07/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 14/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |