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4

Andesite

4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 82

Chester · Style Joinery Handicap · 7f 1y

#8

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Finally added to his 2-y-o debut success when edging ahead close home at Thirsk (7f, good to soft) 14 days ago. More than talented enough to cope with a 2 lb nudge but he's one who needs things to fall right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength80%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 86 · 6f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 86 par15/042OR 863 @ Thirsk 16/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/05/2026 · OR 84 par4 @ Redcar 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 82 · 7f219y Goo 133 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 82 par26/054OR 823 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 19 · OR 81 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 81 par3 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 82 · 7f192y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 82 par27/063OR 823 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 17 · OR 84 · 7f Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Thirsk 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 83 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 83 par1/083OR 834 @ Ripon 15/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 82 · 1m Goo 139 · below its mark15/08/2026 · OR 82 par4 @ Thirsk 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 80 · 7f Goo 135 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 80 par5/094OR 80projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Thirsk41st1st0
2026-08-15Ripon47th7th0
2026-08-01Thirsk35th4th+1
2026-07-10York310th9th+1
2026-06-27York32nd1st+1
2026-06-13York32nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0413/061/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength67%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/202612th22/10%8%+0.08
16/05/20265th22/10%64%+0.64
26/05/20263rd7/282%60%-0.22
13/06/20262nd25/10%94%+0.94
27/06/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19
10/07/202610th11/271%44%-0.27
01/08/20265th11/142%71%+0.29
15/08/20267th8/158%33%-0.25
05/09/20261st5/174%100%+0.26