6
County Carlow
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 83
Chester · Style Joinery Handicap · 7f 1y
#10
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.6
Today: 4
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Thirsk | 3 | 18th | 17th | +1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Doncaster | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Fairyhouse | BHA85 | 2nd | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-05-03 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Dundalk | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Dundalk | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength18%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 92% | -0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 05/06/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 15/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/08/2026 | 18th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |