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9

First Time

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 80

Chester · Style Joinery Handicap · 7f 1y

#6

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a 6f Newmarket maiden last summer for Harry Charlton. Largely proved consistent in handicaps for current yard this season, including fourth of 15 at York (7f, good) 13 days ago. Visor on first time. Enters calculations.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Ffos Las 16/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f Goo 13316/0754 @ Newmarket 08/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Goo 133 · beat its mark08/08/2025 · OR 84 par4 @ Newcastle 02/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 84 par2/104OR 843 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR 86 · 7f Gd 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 85 · 6f Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 85 par13/062OR 853 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 84 · 7f1y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 83 · 7f6y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 83 par18/073OR 834 @ Doncaster 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 82 · 7f6y GF 132 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 82 par3 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 81 · 7f GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 81 par6/093OR 81projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York34th3rd+1
2026-08-01Doncaster45th5th0
2026-07-18Doncaster33rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Chester33rd2nd+1
2026-06-13York26th4th+2
2026-05-13York311th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0713/0518/076/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20252nd11/1094%90%-0.04
08/08/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
02/10/20252nd9/488%80%-0.08
13/05/202611th25/10%23%+0.23
13/06/20266th100/10%76%+0.76
27/06/20263rd17/255%71%+0.16
18/07/20263rd10/147%75%+0.28
01/08/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
06/09/20264th25/10%79%+0.79