11
Merry
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 79
Chester · Style Joinery Handicap · 7f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Kempton | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-30 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 07/04/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |