5
Vidmiyr
3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 84
Chester · Style Joinery Handicap · 7f 1y
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Doncaster | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | York | 4 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 77% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 90% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 12/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 27/06/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 31% | -0.38 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |