IvyArcIvyArc
11

Al Za'ama

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 62

Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y

#11

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Undistinguished in 3 Flat runs for Andrew Balding and pulled up on hurdle debut for new yard in July. Has had a breathing operation ahead of this return to the Flat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Bath 09/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m Goo 1319/1055 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m Sta 1263/1254 @ Southwell 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 1m3f23y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS30/044projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Uttoxeter4+1
2026-04-30Southwell48th7th+1
2025-12-03Kempton54th4th0
2025-10-09Bath510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/103/1230/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%

Delivery trend +9.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/10/202510th4/179%0%-0.79
03/12/20254th20/10%57%+0.57
30/04/20268th15/261%0%-0.61