9
Bulldog Spirit
6yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 58
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#7
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Chester | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Ffos Las | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Ffos Las | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ffos Las | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Nottingham | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength31%
Delivery trend +7.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/05/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |