3
Carthusian
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 71
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#12
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C7.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Killarney | BHA73 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-07-07 | Tramore | BHA74 | 7th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA73 | 9th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairyhouse | BHA75 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Curragh | BHA76 | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | BHA77 | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 08/05/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 54% | -0.17 |
| 24/05/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 12/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 65% | +0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 20% | -0.22 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |