1
Dream Harder
7yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 73
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Haydock | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Ripon | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +6.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 03/11/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 55% | +0.49 |
| 17/11/2025 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 17% | -0.25 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 17/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |