Melon
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 71
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 2 | 2nd | -2th | +3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Newbury | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Windsor | 2 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Cheltenham | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-03-08 | Sandown | 3 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-01-23 | Wetherby | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 27/12/2024 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 23/01/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/03/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 16/01/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 10/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 95% | +0.48 |