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12

Risk Averse Rebel

3yo Colt · 8-4 · OR 52

Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Remains winless but has placed on 4 of his last 5 starts, including over 10.3f here last Friday. Significantly up in trip. He's 4 lb out of the handicap so the likelihood is his wait for a first win will go on.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 09/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 50 · 1m142y Std 130 · beat its mark09/03/2026 · OR 50 par9/036OR 506 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 50 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 50 · 1m1f104y Std 120 · beat its mark30/03/2026 · OR 50 par30/036OR 505 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 50 · 1m2f43y Goo 116 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 49 · 1m4f51y Std 124 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 49 par2/066OR 496 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m4f51y Std 129 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 49 par5 @ Chester 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 49 · 1m4f63y Goo 114 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 49 par25/075OR 496 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 53 · 1m3f99y GF 123 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 53 par5 @ Chester 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 53 · 1m2f70y Goo 119 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 53 par11/095OR 53projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Chester53rd3rd0
2026-08-17Windsor68th9th−1
2026-07-25Chester52nd2nd0
2026-06-16Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-06-02Wolverhampton63rd4th−1
2026-04-24Doncaster55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0324/0425/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength47%

Delivery trend -2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/03/20263rd22/10%80%+0.80
13/03/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
30/03/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
24/04/20265th11/142%50%+0.08
02/06/20263rd18/15%71%+0.66
16/06/20263rd3/184%78%-0.06
25/07/20262nd12/137%89%+0.52
17/08/20268th11/271%13%-0.59
11/09/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64