Spartan Times
5yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 72
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Chester | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Chester | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Chester | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Ripon | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Aintree | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 23/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 12/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 15/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 12/09/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 70% | +0.04 |