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7

Tabasko

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 75

Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y

#1

Rank

Odds

10/3

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

60%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

4/5, career best when winning 4-runner handicap at Lingfield (1¾m, firm) 46 days ago. Has form on softer than good and is less exposed than the majority of these.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Ascot 05/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 7f213y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS5/0944 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 7f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Newbury 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Sft 128 · HIGHER CLASS25/1045 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 1m1f104y Std 134 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 73 par5 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 72 · 1m1f201y Gd 132 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 72 par23/055OR 724 @ Epsom Downs 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 71 · 1m4f6y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 71 par5 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 73 · 2m109y GF 129 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 73 par18/075OR 734 @ Lingfield 04/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 73 · 1m6f GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 73 par4/084OR 73projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Lingfield41st0th+1
2026-07-18Doncaster52nd2nd0
2026-07-01Epsom Downs42nd1st+1
2026-05-23Salisbury55th5th0
2025-11-24Wolverhampton54th4th0
2025-10-25Newbury44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0924/1118/074/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20255th28/10%60%+0.60
27/09/20253rd11/271%33%-0.38
25/10/20254th16/116%57%+0.41
24/11/20254th6/168%40%-0.28
23/05/20265th12/137%64%+0.27
01/07/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
18/07/20262nd5/493%50%-0.43
04/08/20261st4/596%100%+0.04