5
Zimmerman
7yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 71
Chester · Lord Mayor's Spooktacular Fireworks Apprentice Handicap · 1m 6f 87y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength43%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Ripon | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Pontefract | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Musselburgh | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength87%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 53% | +0.01 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 08/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 55% | -0.19 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |